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Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is ready.

That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Lack of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and encourage discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."