🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market Trader Profited $Nearly Half a Million on Bets on the Ouster of Maduro. A smartphone screen displays a prediction market application logo. A trader earned a substantial sum from wagers on the downfall of Venezuela's president immediately preceding it was publicly declared, raising questions about the possibility of profiting from confidential information of the event. Sudden Shift in Wagers Predictions made on the forecasting site, an online prediction market, that the Venezuelan president would be removed from office by the close of the month rose in the period preceding Donald Trump declared on January 3rd that the Venezuelan leader had been taken into custody. A particular user, which registered on the site recently and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, made more than $436,000 from a initial bet of over $32,000. Who placed the bet is a mystery. This unidentified trader had only a string of letters and numbers for identification. Odds Fluctuate Before Announcement Platform data shows that participants assessed the probability of the president's removal at just a low 6.5 percent in the late afternoon of the Friday before the event. But the odds had climbed to over 10% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the early hours of January 3rd, suggesting a sharp shift in betting activity immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This particular bet has all the characteristics of a transaction based on non-public details," stated Dennis Kelleher. Several of other traders also earned large payouts from predicting the capture. Regulatory Scrutiny Grows Some lawmakers are beginning to pay attention. A bill put forward on the start of the week would prevent public officials from placing bets on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. Industry Context Prediction markets have become increasingly popular in recent years, with users able to bet on everything from sports outcomes to political events. This sector faced scrutiny under the last presidential term. But it has experienced less resistance during the Trump presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are less oversight in the forecasting industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "strictly forbids such activities of any form."